Tag Archives: ASPO

Financial Times (not the): in the year 2020

Dear friends,

Ever wondered what the world might look like in the year 2020, or which economic, political, social, or environmental issues might take our fancy? Wonder no more. The Financial Times 2020 (not the) gives us a glimpse of things to come, or not.


With headlines like “Carbon rations hit parity, party starts”, “Off-Peak Oil – BP says the barrel’s still half full”, and “GM crops ‘work’ rogue scientist says”, the FT2020 make bold statements of what might be expected. Are these headlines or stories really just fictitious or can one safely assume that they might come to pass?

On the “carbon rations” headline for example the British Daily Mail newspaper reported in May 2008 that “every adult in Britian should be forced to carry ‘carbon ration cards’ “. It also highlights how this potential scheme might work.

The “Off-Peak Oil and BP” headline is even more interesting. In a speech by Dr. Michael C Daly (BP’s GVP – Exploration & LTR) at the Geological Society Bicentenery Conference in 2007, he states that “I was asked to talk about oil supply after peak oil. However, I don’t accept the premise. It is far from clear to me when there will be a peak to oil supply, at least one driven by a fundamental resource shortage. I believe, from what I know today, that peak oil supply is still a long way off. However, we may face a peak demand for oil first.

A press release on the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas’ (ASPO) web site highlights BP Plc’s CEO Tony Hayward’s bet that by 2018 “global crude production will be greater than the current (2008) daily output of 85.5 million barrels.” So basically, BP believe that they can supply oil and gas from their resource base of 43.4 billion barrels until 2020 without any new discoveries (BP Press Release), hence the barrel is “still half full” by 2020.

So, the FT2020 headlines might not be that far off then! For more information on this special edition of the Financial Times and the people behind this all, visit FT2020. Until 2020, good luck!

The 90 by 2030 Team